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FX Daily Outlook 24/03/2009

Posted by chrisdshaw in FX.

EURUSD- (12.25GMT): 1.3557  Daily outlook: Bearish.  Has broken 1.3615, and below 100 SMA. Targeting 1.3500.

  • Risk trades have paired back following yesterday’s euphoria.
  • Mixed European data (French consumer spending -2% in Feb vs exp -1%, Euro PMI, 37.6- better than expected and prior)
  • Technically strongly bearish
  • Longer term EUR likely to be supported until possible radical change in policy 

USDJPY- (12.24GMT: 98.24) Daily outlook: Neutral to Bullish. Targeting 99.70 (200 SMA and YTD high)

  • Rose over 200 pips overnight against the USD
  • Reached 5 month high against EUR. 
  • Minutes of BoJ meeting in Feb show agreement on need to bring down L-T interest rates- ie QE

GBPUSD (12.24GMT: 1.4735) Daily outlook: Bearish Targeting 1.4640(100 SMA) , then 1.4450 (yesterday’s low)

  • Strong rally in Cable to reach near upper end of range (1.4980 is high of last 2.5 mths) benign CPI figures
  • According to BoE, resumption of deflation in next few months
  • BoE’s King sees no recovery to growth rate in lending


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