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The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End? 23/02/2018

Posted by chrisdshaw in Uncategorized.
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Too much has happened in the space of time since my last post for a retrospective. There has been too much procrastination from me trying to account and analyse the cataclysmic events that have piled on top of each other in the last two years. I just need to get started again and provide a write a daily post on “the thing”- Brexit, Trump and the enormous and potentially terminal changes in world geopolitics and society.

As I write, Trump is addressing the CPAC convention in Washington- having suggested arming teachers in the aftermath of the Parkland school shooting. This comes in an atmosphere of utter poison in the US, with death threats being made on traumatised school students who dared to speak up for gun control. I have long believed that America has been heading for a civil war. Until now I thought this would largely be a “cold war”, largely fought on social media and segregation and sectarianism similar to Northern Ireland. I now realise that moment has been with us for a number of years and we could be about to enter an actual, violent civil war going forward, with a complete breakdown in government. Russia will be delighted- an astonished- by how successful its cyber campaign to teat America apart is going. There is much much more to write about this, but my prediction is that the US is now on an irretrievable path to destruction. And it breaks my heart.

Meanwhile in the UK, 20 months after the Brexit referendum, the Government has finally agreed its position on the relationship with the EU- to negotiate a free trade agreement similar to the EU-Canada deal, but then try to embellish it by securing better access to the single market for goods and services through close regulatory co-operation- in other words, have its cake and eat it. The UK is heading for disorderly No Deal Brexit and is providing strong competition with the US as country heading towards dystopia.

All of this ties in with the hugely disruptive, distorting and dangerous effects of social media and tech.

All in all it feels, in February 2018, to be a very dangerous time to be alive. I hope we make it- it seems like we’re going to need all the luck we can get.

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Testing One, Two, Three 06/06/2013

Posted by chrisdshaw in Uncategorized.
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It’s been a long time. So much has happened in the last three years. Will be back up soon.

Democrats to pursue death wish strategy 20/01/2010

Posted by chrisdshaw in Politics, Uncategorized, United States.
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Conversations between Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank and some of hits constituents hint at a Democratic strategy to prove beyond all reasonable doubt that they are the most incompetent political machine in the Western World. President Obama, you certainly have your work cut out.

Daily Read 16/12/2009

Posted by chrisdshaw in Daily Feeds, Uncategorized.
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Britain’s dismal choice: sharing the losses (Martin Wolf, FT)

Greece borrows privately as downgrade drives up yield (Bloomberg)

UK labour market shows signs of recovery (FT)

Moody’s warns of ‘social unrest’ as sovereign debt spirals (Daily Telegraph)

Sentiment on S&P 500 sinks to five month low (Bloomberg)

What are the chances…..? 06/12/2009

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Anticipating the next shock 06/12/2009

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US investors are increasingly protecting themselves against a jolt in the financial markets and hedging against a rise in the dollar

Daily Feeds 30/11/2009

Posted by chrisdshaw in Daily Feeds, Uncategorized.
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We must get ready for a weak-dollar world (FT)

Dubai World’s debt not guaranteed by government (Bloomberg)

Greece and expect no gifts from Brussels (Wolfgang Munchau, FT)

An empire at risk (Niall Ferguson, Newsweek)

The future of entertainment: middle class struggle (The Economist)

Every man an anchor on the goodship Palin (Julian Sanchez)

 

Dangerous times for the euro 19/10/2009

Posted by chrisdshaw in Economics, FX, Politics, Uncategorized.
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BNY Mellon’s Simon Derrick tells the FT why the Indonesian Rupiah is his favourite currency, the AUD is his favourite G10 currency, why the US dollar will continue to decline, that the GBP may be reaching a bottom as political considerations may warn the Labour government away from parity against the EUR, and why the Eurozone may be facing some difficult days ahead if its currency keeps attracting foreign reserves.

Verbal intervention gives US Dollar (temporary) relief 09/10/2009

Posted by chrisdshaw in FX, Uncategorized.
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Chief Economic Advisor to President Obama Larry Summers, has re-iterated the administration’s supposed support for a strong dollar, adding to comments made by Ben Bernanke on Thursday who emphasized Fed willingness to raise rates when the economy improves to prevent inflation.  This follows a nervous week as, post G7, policy makers from around have openly expressed concern about the rise in the value of their currencies relative to the US Dollar. Over the last 48 hours one could almost detect a whiff of fear of a run on the dollar, particularly during widespread reports that Asian central banks- among them Thailand, Hong Kong, South Korea and Indonesia- had aggressively intervened to prevent further appreciation in their currencies.

Given the level of concern over the Dollar, one would have expected a sharper reversal than has occurred in the last 24 hours. USDJPY has gained 120 pips since this morning and EURUSD is back below 1.4700 but the market feels primed for more Dollar selling next week. After all, Bernanke’s comments did little more than state the obvious and did not signal any near-term tightening, given the current weakness of the economy.  it is becoming increasingly difficult to figure out what a “Strong Dollar” policy amounts to any more.

This time is different 26/09/2009

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A new book by Rogoff and Reinhart: “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” looks pretty damn indispensible if the reviews are anything to go by. I must pick up a copy tomorrow. To file next to Fool’s Gold, The Two Trillion Dollar Meltdown and Manias, Panics and Crashes.