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The Enablers and the Opportunity 22/01/2026

Posted by chrisdshaw in Uncategorized.
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Why is Trump able to do what he does? Because the opposition has crumbled. There was a very telling discussion on Squawk on the Street this morning (22nd January) following the Trump change of heart on Greenland in Davos. CNBC is, for those of us opposed to the authoritarian takeover of the US, a disheartening watch, as financiers and corporate CEOs, along with the likes of Sarah Eisen and Joe Kernan, clammer to sane-wash the madness of the White House. All are experts in double think communications- their jobs are dependent on being able to spin how unexplained market movements didn’t in fact catch them off guard and why their predictions, despite being wrong in the past, are worth parting your money for.

The first hour of Squawk on the Street is presented by Carl Quintanilla, David Faber and Jim Cramer. Cramer has succumbed over the last year to sane washing Trump, while the others are noble in their pursuit of reason, rationality and dispassionate analysis. However, today he let slip the conversations he has been having with CEOs over the last year and their refusal to say anything critical of Trump, his administration and his record. The other presenters concurred. It was not just that the CEOs were avoiding controversy as part of their fiduciary responsibilities- to dodge attacks by the administration, but that his extended to fears for personal safety- including their families!

The way that this was presented on the leading financial television network- speaking softly, raising eyebrows, seeking to convey to the audience what is actually happening as below the radar as they are able- is extraordinarily chilling. Freedom of speech longer exists in the largest financial news channel or, seemingly, in corporate America. The casual US investor, admittedly, among the richer sections of society that watches CNBC (professional investors I know shy away from this circus) and values its information, is being blindsided about the state of the US economy. Why? Because of fear.

A little later in the same show macroeconomics sage Mohamed El-Erian was asked about the relief rally following the Greenland announcement by Trump. As diplomatic as ever, he argued there was a battle between those who view these reality TV confrontations of maximalist TACO tactics as great opportunities to buy on dips, and those who view a long terms corrosion of trust between allies and a reassessment by foreign investors on overweight US assets positions.

In short, enablers are misinforming US investors about the long term damage that is being done to the US economy by the Trump administration. This is leading to an overvaluation of US assets- soon to be divested by a very pissed off continent notorious for its long memories. Crisis is a fusion of danger and opportunity. Sell America.

Is the House of Cards falling? 18/11/2025

Posted by chrisdshaw in Uncategorized.
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I’m going to make a big call. Trump is finished. Not today, tomorrow, or even past the midterms. He will see out his presidency to 2028, but the project of the authoritarian dominance of one man rule, namely Donald J Trump, is coming to a visible end. As with many, but sadly not all, dictators his rule seems invincible up to the moment it collapses. Honicker, Ceaucesceau, and Qaddafi come to mind. While it is highly unlikely he meets such an abrupt and grizzly end, he will feel its effects of as if they are an assassination. His miscalculations on both Epstein and the cost of living are starting to unravel his coalition and omnipotence. Once the emperor is seen naked it hard to unsee.

Trump has experienced an uncharacteristically rough November. Very poor election results have been analysed as a result of energized Democrats, angry independents, and deflated Republicans. Chuck Todd- probably the pod/broadcaster I trust more than anyone else in US election analysis- predicts this result is almost certain to be reflected in the midterms in 2026. The House will go strongly blue, and he now gives a 50% chance that the Senate will flip too. If that happens the President is a dead, not lame, duck.

Second, the stonewalling over the Epstein files has hurt support from his MAGA base. This is reflected in the ghastly but politically astute Marjorie Taylor Green spotting political space to strengthen her position in a post-Trump GOP by calling for the release of the files as a champion of anti-paedophile swamp draining. She has been accompanied by others- privately, as high as 100 Congressman. This has enraged Trump, but ultimately he has folded. The idea of opposing him is not confined to political suicide or worse. And there is plenty to oppose- the impact of tariffs on prices, the abomination of the East Wing of the White House. In particular, the tin eared approach to the cost of living, the central plank on which he ran and what won him the election has been completely ignored or brushed aside as lies. That does not wash with voters. If there is one thing Americans care about more than the flag, liberty, human rights, even guns and God, and that is money and what it can buy. If people can’t buy things anymore, no amount of gaslighting will persuade them to not vote the bozo out of office. Trump used to know this, but has forgotten. More importantly, he has no policies to address this- at least not in a short-term headline grabbing way, and even those levers no longer work.

Lastly, something that may have been overlooked by pundits and the GOP. The outwardly racist and appallingly violent behaviour by ICE agents has had a strong impression on Hispanics in the US, as seen in voting patterns in early November. Florida recently ceased to become swing state, in large part because the historically conservative anti-Castro Hispanic community swung behind the GOP as a repudiation of the Democratic Party’s increasing emphasis on “Woke” issues. In particular, Miami-Dade county’s voting patterns since 2016 helped seal the fate of the state electorally. As Democrats have steadily moved away from Woke, instead back to focusing on bread and butter issues, and the GOP have recklessly taken Hispanic Floridian votes for granted, what if ICE behaviour has put the third most populous state back in contention? Such stark electoral calculations will add further jitters to a party that may have realised its dance with the Orange mad man was potentially fatal mistake. This cracks in the coalition could burst the party open. Here’s hoping! And we need hope.