God bless the NHS 26/03/2020
Posted by chrisdshaw in Uncategorized.add a comment
At 8pm this evening thousands of people across the UK stood outside their doors and clapped to show their support for NHS workers. This comes after over 500,000 people volunteered to act as a support for the NHS, in ancillary activities professionals do not have the resources to focus on, as hospitals are now facing a “tsunami” of COVID-19 cases in hospitals in London- about a week ahead of there rest of the country. Nicky stood outside applauding while I was finishing hearing Chapter’s 1 to 3 of Eva’s story she had written.
I am feeling a rollercoaster of emotions this week. Utter fear on Monday, followed by feeling upbeat on Tuesday, geopolitical despair yesterday with Trump’s attempted politicitsation of the pandemic yesterday. Today I am feeling more personally confident that I have a chance of missing contracting the virus, good news from our supermarket where panic buying seems to be subsiding (it still feels eery and uncomfortably tense there) and I have nice problems to deal with at work. This is mixed with a growing sense that our economy and society has been radically altered forever.
The impact on society, with not only a devastating economic impact on the vast percentage of the population. I have heard anecdotal reports of terrible personal psychological sacrifices and problems resulting from the lockdown. The idea that this will last for months, which it looks like it needs to, is scary in terms of its long term effect. Of chief concern is the United States, where an increasingly transparent psychopath as President is pushing his country towards a health suicide. I am not sure if the US will survive this- it looks like its President is prepared to take that risk in a gamble to seek reelection in November.
My girls are in good form, although when we told Eva during our daily walk that we couldn’t go to her favourite cafe, shouted in front of a number of people, “I hate this stupid virus, and want it to go away forever”. We are all with you, Eva
Lockdown! 23/03/2020
Posted by chrisdshaw in COVID19.add a comment
The British Prime Minister has just announced the greatest curtailment of freedom of movement in the UK in history and relief among most people in the country is palpable. Such is the unprecedented nature of the times we currently live in; times that started about three weeks ago and look to change the world- society, economics, politics and the environment- in a such a fundamental way that seemed inconceivable ago a the beginning of this month.
Today was also the start of our children’s relocation of education from school to home. The newness to this concept to millions of people- both parents and children- on the same day is a feeling most of us have not experienced before. A mixture of trepidation, a little excitement at the novelty of it all, and underlying worry, uncertainty, and concern is a strange combination that we are all feeling. It is a really specific feeling.
The timeline of change is mindblowing: 10 days ago Nicky and I went to a party, a week ago I was working in my office in Canary Wharf, last week I was sneaking out of a pint in the local pub every evening. As recently as Saturday we met up with friends. A long planned letting off steam party in Soho, was still planning to go ahead as recently as a week ago and I was still planning to meet up with friends on Saturday in London 5 days ago. From the perspective of 23rd March this feels like a lifetime ago.
Boris Johnson’s welcome announcement has put an end to all life we took for granted only a week ago. Will we see that life again, and if so will it be the same or feel the same? We just don’t know. The expression “taking each day as it comes” has become a mental health necessity. No-one has felt this level of uncertainty before but we hope this limbo we are living may just to come to a quicker end with the lockdown.
The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End? 23/02/2018
Posted by chrisdshaw in Uncategorized.add a comment
Too much has happened in the space of time since my last post for a retrospective. There has been too much procrastination from me trying to account and analyse the cataclysmic events that have piled on top of each other in the last two years. I just need to get started again and provide a write a daily post on “the thing”- Brexit, Trump and the enormous and potentially terminal changes in world geopolitics and society.
As I write, Trump is addressing the CPAC convention in Washington- having suggested arming teachers in the aftermath of the Parkland school shooting. This comes in an atmosphere of utter poison in the US, with death threats being made on traumatised school students who dared to speak up for gun control. I have long believed that America has been heading for a civil war. Until now I thought this would largely be a “cold war”, largely fought on social media and segregation and sectarianism similar to Northern Ireland. I now realise that moment has been with us for a number of years and we could be about to enter an actual, violent civil war going forward, with a complete breakdown in government. Russia will be delighted- an astonished- by how successful its cyber campaign to teat America apart is going. There is much much more to write about this, but my prediction is that the US is now on an irretrievable path to destruction. And it breaks my heart.
Meanwhile in the UK, 20 months after the Brexit referendum, the Government has finally agreed its position on the relationship with the EU- to negotiate a free trade agreement similar to the EU-Canada deal, but then try to embellish it by securing better access to the single market for goods and services through close regulatory co-operation- in other words, have its cake and eat it. The UK is heading for disorderly No Deal Brexit and is providing strong competition with the US as country heading towards dystopia.
All of this ties in with the hugely disruptive, distorting and dangerous effects of social media and tech.
All in all it feels, in February 2018, to be a very dangerous time to be alive. I hope we make it- it seems like we’re going to need all the luck we can get.
Back in the UK 19/04/2016
Posted by chrisdshaw in Domestic Politics, Economics, Geopolitics, Human mobility, United States.add a comment
After a six year break I have decided to resume blogging, commenting, opining on Brave New World. Since I stop my regular posts in early 2010 I have got married, moved abroad, had two beautiful daughters, set up and run a business in the wilds of southern Louisiana, and experienced a culture few Europeans are privileged to enjoy . While much of our experiences have been challenging, we have had rewarding and magical experience.
The blog was originally intended to focus primarily on global macro-economic concerns, which were uppermost in people’s minds following the 2008 financial crisis. The slow and weak economic recovery in the developed world, helped by a lopsided and unsustainable policy response benefitting a small percentage of the population at the expense of the rest, means that economic policy will continue to be an important focus of attention on this site.
However, I would like to widen the scope of discussion to include;
- Domestic politics around the world, particularly with regard to the disenchantment with the political establishment and the resulting rise of populism, the rise of geopolitical instability
- Rising geopolitical instability, led by the decline in US prestige and world influence and the increasingly aggressive stances by Middle East actors and China and Russia
- Decline in media standards and the effects on discourse
- The growth in human mobility and its effects- economic and political refugees-causes and effects
If all that sounds too bleak I apologise. I promise to include a focus on hope for the world and humanity. We owe it to our children to keep working to improve our situation, even it- at times like these- the world appears to have lost its head. I’ll also be giving my views on living and working in southern Louisiana and New Orleans, The Crescent City. I love that place- warts and all!
Back soon….
Testing One, Two, Three 06/06/2013
Posted by chrisdshaw in Uncategorized.add a comment
It’s been a long time. So much has happened in the last three years. Will be back up soon.
The importance of primary sources 16/02/2010
Posted by chrisdshaw in Climate Change.add a comment
Why internet based “research” by dogmatists is confusing scientific inquiry. This is a good example of the the skewing of the debate on climate change by sceptics. Don’t believe everything you read on the internet….
Democrats to pursue death wish strategy 20/01/2010
Posted by chrisdshaw in Politics, Uncategorized, United States.add a comment
Conversations between Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank and some of hits constituents hint at a Democratic strategy to prove beyond all reasonable doubt that they are the most incompetent political machine in the Western World. President Obama, you certainly have your work cut out.
US politics grinds to a halt- oh joy 20/01/2010
Posted by chrisdshaw in Politics, United States.add a comment
It has been difficult to concentrate today as the sense of impending doom I thought I had left behind in November 2008 has returned. I was awoken by the 7am Radio 4 news bulletin announcing that Republican candidate, and former Penthouse centerfold, Scott Brown had won race for Senator in the Massachusetts Special Election, following Ted Kennedy’s death last year. The seat was considered to be a rock solid Democratic seat and has started a huge political earthquake in Washington D.C. If translated to a general election the Democrats would be virtually wiped out. Fortunately we have to wait until November this year before something like that has a chance of happening.
What makes this election victory by the GOP even more significant is that it is almost certain to derail healthcare reform, an issue very close to the former senator’s heart. On top of this, any chance of meaningful climate change legislation is off the cards, as is pretty much anything else the Obama administration advocates. The GOP have managed to sabotage anything the administration proposes, such is its singlemindedness in destroying a presidency that voted in on a promise of change. The US faces a serious political crisis, entirely the fault of a lunatic right-wing GOP- one that would make Reagan turn in his grave- and a Democratic party that never ceases to amaze by its ineptitude. At possibly one of the most critical periods in American history the country is being plunged into yet another stretch of political paralysis, with no serious attempt is made to address its deep structural problems in the US economy and society and a fasting US leadership in the world at precisely the time that America needs to safeguard its influence with the rise of China and other emerging regional superpowers. And perhaps the most worrying thing of all, virtually no chance of any climate change leadership in a decade which most scientific opinion is convinced is crucial for the future of the planet.
This is a deeply depressing time. It is not yet 9 years since September 11th. How America can have lost its way so quickly is simply staggering.
Daily Read 19/01/2010
Posted by chrisdshaw in Daily Feeds.add a comment
Stocks fall on earnings concern as gilts decline, pound rises (Bloomberg)
Bank fee has merits but lacks financial clout (FT)
Why America and China will clash (FT)
BoE nerves to be tested as inflation jumps record amount (Daily Telegraph)
Germany to Pick up Greece’s tab? 18/01/2010
Posted by chrisdshaw in Economics.add a comment
Gabriel Stein from Lombard Street Research thinks so. His colleague Charles Dumas goes further, arguing that the Eurozone will break up as southern European countries succumb to the inevitable (I’m having problems posting this clip- see Bloomberg videos for today “Lombard’s Dumas has “no doubt” Euro zone will break up”)
Brave New World 