Brave New World

Back in the UK 19/04/2016

Posted by chrisdshaw in Domestic Politics, Economics, Geopolitics, Human mobility, United States.
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After a six year break I have decided to resume blogging, commenting, opining on Brave New World. Since I stop my regular posts in early 2010 I have got married, moved abroad, had two beautiful daughters, set up and run a business in the wilds of southern Louisiana, and experienced a culture few Europeans are privileged to enjoy . While much of our experiences have been challenging, we have had rewarding and magical experience.

The blog was originally intended to focus primarily on global macro-economic concerns, which were uppermost in people’s minds following the 2008 financial crisis. The slow and weak economic recovery in the developed world, helped by a lopsided and unsustainable policy response benefitting a small percentage of the population at the expense of the rest, means that economic policy will continue to be an important focus of attention on this site.

However, I would like to widen the scope of discussion to include;

Domestic politics around the world, particularly with regard to the disenchantment with the political establishment and the resulting rise of populism, the rise of geopolitical instability
Rising geopolitical instability, led by the decline in US prestige and world influence and the increasingly aggressive stances by Middle East actors and China and Russia
Decline in media standards and the effects on discourse
The growth in human mobility and its effects- economic and political refugees-causes and effects

If all that sounds too bleak I apologise. I promise to include a focus on hope for the world and humanity. We owe it to our children to keep working to improve our situation, even it- at times like these- the world appears to have lost its head. I’ll also be giving my views on living and working in southern Louisiana and New Orleans, The Crescent City. I love that place- warts and all!

Back soon….

Testing One, Two, Three 06/06/2013

Posted by chrisdshaw in Uncategorized.
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It’s been a long time. So much has happened in the last three years. Will be back up soon.

The importance of primary sources 16/02/2010

Posted by chrisdshaw in Climate Change.
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Why internet based “research” by dogmatists is confusing scientific inquiry. This is a good example of the the skewing of the debate on climate change by sceptics. Don’t believe everything you read on the internet….

Democrats to pursue death wish strategy 20/01/2010

Posted by chrisdshaw in Politics, Uncategorized, United States.
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Conversations between Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank and some of hits constituents hint at a Democratic strategy to prove beyond all reasonable doubt that they are the most incompetent political machine in the Western World. President Obama, you certainly have your work cut out.

US politics grinds to a halt- oh joy 20/01/2010

Posted by chrisdshaw in Politics, United States.
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It has been difficult to concentrate today as the sense of impending doom I thought I had left behind in November 2008 has returned. I was awoken by the 7am Radio 4 news bulletin announcing that Republican candidate, and former Penthouse centerfold, Scott Brown had won race for Senator in the Massachusetts Special Election, following Ted Kennedy’s death last year. The seat was considered to be a rock solid Democratic seat and has started a huge political earthquake in Washington D.C. If translated to a general election the Democrats would be virtually wiped out. Fortunately we have to wait until November this year before something like that has a chance of happening.

What makes this election victory by the GOP even more significant is that it is almost certain to derail healthcare reform, an issue very close to the former senator’s heart. On top of this, any chance of meaningful climate change legislation is off the cards, as is pretty much anything else the Obama administration advocates. The GOP have managed to sabotage anything the administration proposes, such is its singlemindedness in destroying a presidency that voted in on a promise of change. The US faces a serious political crisis, entirely the fault of a lunatic right-wing GOP- one that would make Reagan turn in his grave- and a Democratic party that never ceases to amaze by its ineptitude. At possibly one of the most critical periods in American history the country is being plunged into yet another stretch of political paralysis, with no serious attempt is made to address its deep structural problems in the US economy and society and a fasting US leadership in the world at precisely the time that America needs to safeguard its influence with the rise of China and other emerging regional superpowers. And perhaps the most worrying thing of all, virtually no chance of any climate change leadership in a decade which most scientific opinion is convinced is crucial for the future of the planet.

This is a deeply depressing time. It is not yet 9 years since September 11th. How America can have lost its way so quickly is simply staggering.

Daily Read 19/01/2010

Posted by chrisdshaw in Daily Feeds.
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Stocks fall on earnings concern as gilts decline, pound rises (Bloomberg)

Bank fee has merits but lacks financial clout (FT)

Why America and China will clash (FT)

BoE nerves to be tested as inflation jumps record amount (Daily Telegraph)

Germany to Pick up Greece’s tab? 18/01/2010

Posted by chrisdshaw in Economics.
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Gabriel Stein from Lombard Street Research thinks so. His colleague Charles Dumas goes further, arguing that the Eurozone will break up as southern European countries succumb to the inevitable (I’m having problems posting this clip- see Bloomberg videos for today “Lombard’s Dumas has “no doubt” Euro zone will break up”)

FX Lunchtime update- Spotlight on Euro 18/01/2010

Posted by chrisdshaw in Economics, FX.
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The flight from risk witnessed at the end of last week has continued in Asian and morning London trading. EURUSD reached a one week low early in the session and USDJPY dipped lower to below the 90.75 level. Following last week’s monetary tightening by China and the worse than expected U.S. retail sales figures today’s sentiment is driven by the eurozone, in particular the growing worries over Greece and its government’s plans to cut its fiscal deficit. Greek stocks and bonds are lower today and EURGBP is now trading below the 0.88 handle; the lowest since September.

The situation in Greece will presumably dominate the meeting of Eurozone finance minsters in Brussels this week. Greece’s finance minister Papaconstantinou said, “If there is something lacking (in our crisis plan), we will take additional measures.” He added, “As a new government, our priority of re-establishing reliability in our statistics and outlining our growth and stability program has helped create a new climate of hope but there is still work to do.” The sheer scale of the the task facing the socialist government doesn’t sit well with the track record of fiscal discipline by previous Greek governments. The current plan is to cut the budget gap to 2.8% of GDP in 2012 from a deficit of 12.7% today. This year the deficit is to be reduced by the equivalent of 4% of GDP. Such stringent cuts would test the most socially cohesive and law-abiding society. The fact that Greece has shown a relative propensity for social unrest- witness the riots in December 2008- has led to nervousness among European officials and international investors. Strong words from the ECB and some German politicians about the lack of options have not quelled doubts that Greece will be able to repair its fiscal position. Today’s Daily Telegraph reports that the ECB has issued a document titled: “Withdrawl and explusion form the EU and EMU”. A long hot summer of rioting on the streets of Athens will do little to give investors confidence in the country or the periphery of Europe and will lead investors to speculate that Greece will be the first country to leave the eurozone. And with it the potential for further countries to exit. In any case, the position of the Euro is looking increasingly precarious.